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SEN Mafia XV: Gotham City
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Oct 3 2009, 8:43 pm
By: DT_Battlekruser
Pages: < 1 « 11 12 13 14 1582 >
 

Oct 12 2009, 12:23 am Echo Post #241



That quote does not apply to how I am voting. It isn't mindless. Stop acting like a retard. Anyways, I already have 2 reasons why I think you're mafia. The information after this night will only show if I'm right or not.

I don't mind if you don't send your hits tonight to avoid giving clues about yourself. That would save 1 person from a hit. Either way it's a win win.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 12:33 am Vrael Post #242



Bring it on, Joker. No one jail me or anything, it would be better that I die than someone with special powers.



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Oct 12 2009, 12:43 am darksnow Post #243



if someone dies from joker then that means that we get to know if they're mafia or not right?



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Oct 12 2009, 12:46 am Bar Refaeli Post #244



wait dont we have to kill vrael somehow? or does he automatically die.

(found answer to previous qustion posts ago)



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Oct 12 2009, 1:13 am darksnow Post #245



he must die, through a hit or a lynch.
if he doesn't die, 2 randomly picked out people by the joker will die



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Oct 12 2009, 1:33 am Bar Refaeli Post #246



so by saving two random people we have to kill vrael and lose a possible lynch candidate, because we used our lynch on vrael?

...batman better be pwnin rite now.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 1:41 am DT_Battlekruser Post #247



Quote from darksnow
if someone dies from joker then that means that we get to know if they're mafia or not right?

Whenever someone dies by any means, their role is revealed.

Quote from darksnow
he must die, through a hit or a lynch.
if he doesn't die, 2 randomly picked out people by the joker will die

The Joker's placing an ultimatum on someone does not cause their death. It is completely up to the rest of you whether Vrael dies or not.

If Vrael is not dead by sundown tomorrow (after the lynch), then I select two players at random that are not Batman and they each get one hit placed on them. Meanwhile the Joker can make another ultimatum.




None.

Oct 12 2009, 1:47 am Corbo Post #248

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

Quote from name:Raccoon
so by saving two random people we have to kill vrael and lose a possible lynch candidate, because we used our lynch on vrael?
Oh crap.
I hadn't realise that the joker kinda forces us to waste our lynch. That will certainly be a bitch when we're running out of townies and trying to lynch a mafia. Kill one and save 2 or kill 1 mafia (assuming we ARE lynching a mafia) and lose mafia hits + 2 townies D:

I feel mafia's going to win this round.



fuck you all

Oct 12 2009, 1:59 am Bar Refaeli Post #249



yea. the mafia looks pretty intimidating this game... but i guess its wat we deserve cause we pwned last game so much



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Oct 12 2009, 2:10 am darksnow Post #250



by 2 hits placed on them, does that mean the mafia wastes 2 hits?



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Oct 12 2009, 2:14 am Bar Refaeli Post #251



Quote from darksnow
by 2 hits placed on them, does that mean the mafia wastes 2 hits?
didnt understand that one bit

realization: the joker can hit mafia with his ability, that means the mafia have to try and advert the hit, which would be interesting, and in the end it is likely that one of the mafia will die. but the chanced of him hitting a mafia are slim.

Edit'd question: can one of the random hits be a mafia? (probably yes, but since DTBK is picking the random targets, probably very doubtful)



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:16 am darksnow Post #252



Quote
then I select two players at random that are not Batman and they each get one hit placed on them. Meanwhile the Joker can make another ultimatum.
they each get a hit placed on them.
does that mean that the mafia must waste 2 of their hits to kill the 2 random people; or does the 2 die and the mafia still keep their hits to use however they want



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Oct 12 2009, 2:17 am Vrael Post #253



Quote from name:Raccoon
Quote from darksnow
by 2 hits placed on them, does that mean the mafia wastes 2 hits?
didnt understand that one bit

realization: the joker can hit mafia with his ability, that means the mafia have to try and advert the hit, which would be interesting, and in the end it is likely that one of the mafia will die. but the chanced of him hitting a mafia are slim.
I will post the actual analysis of it tomorrow during day. I don't want the mafia to be able to see the results because it helps us, but I am confident that they are too lazy to do the analysis themselves so I think by saying this it'll be fine.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:18 am darksnow Post #254



well i think dtbk will be using the randomizer...
hopefully



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Oct 12 2009, 2:19 am Bar Refaeli Post #255



Quote from darksnow
Quote
then I select two players at random that are not Batman and they each get one hit placed on them. Meanwhile the Joker can make another ultimatum.
they each get a hit placed on them.
does that mean that the mafia must waste 2 of their hits to kill the 2 random people; or does the 2 die and the mafia still keep their hits to use however they want
im pretty sure the two joker hits are extra hits, so the mafia get their 6 hits (or 5 hits and a save) plus either 2 random people die, or Vrael dies



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:20 am darksnow Post #256



but if vrael dies, that means we waste a lynch, which could have been used on a potential mafia candidate...
ok mafia is overpowered this game :P
they even have a doctor dammit



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:21 am Vrael Post #257



Changed my mind. I just looked at the player list and there are some competent, intelligent people who could theoretically be mafia.

Hold on, lets do some analysis here.

There are 35 players.
1 is the Joker, and 1 is Batman.
"Batman cannot be a random target, but can be the main target of the Joker's ability"
So I could or could not be Batman.
6 mafia, so there is a 6/34 (35-joker, I can't be the joker or I'd be targeting myself) chance that I'm Mafia.
17.6% chance of me being mafia.
If I am not lynched, or otherwise survive, 2 people are chose at random and given a hit.

Possibilities:

I survive:
Case1:
We lynch a mafia: 5/33 = 15.15% any particular person being mafia.
Case2:
We don't lynch a mafia: 6/33 = 18.18% chance of any particular person being mafia.

However, batman cannot be a random target, so if I survive:
5/(32) = 15.625%
6/(32) = 18.75%

So we will either have 2 15.6% chances of killing a mafia, or 2 18.75% chances of killing a mafia for free.
then we make a table for possibilities of those hits:

---------mafia--------townie
mafia----W--------------X
townie---Y--------------Z

(case 1 = we lynched a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 1 = (5/32)(4/31) = 2.016% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 1 = (5/32)(27/31) = 13.6% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 1 = (27/32)(5/31) = 13.6% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 1 = (27/32)(26/31) = 70.7% (Z)

(case 2 = we didn't lynch a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 2 = (6/32)(5/31) = 3.02% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 2 = (6/32)(26/31) = 15.7% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 2 = (26/32)(6/31) = 15.7% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 2 = (26/32)(25/31) = 65.5% (Z)

So in case 1, the probability that at least 1 mafia dies is 2.016+13.6+13.6 = 29.216%
Case 2, 34.42%

Since you only have a 17.6% chance of me being mafia, I say we don't lynch me and use the Joker to our advantage.
Doctor, please protect me tonight.

Shit I just realized that tomorrow there wont be a total of 35 people anymore. It will be a quick fix, just have to change the fractions above to reflect actual population.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:26 am darksnow Post #258



im seriously thinking raccoon is mafia.
reverse psychology =O



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Oct 12 2009, 2:27 am Echo Post #259



Raccoon is most likely mafia.

BDS, use your hit on Raccoon.



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Oct 12 2009, 2:28 am DT_Battlekruser Post #260



To answer some questions:

1) The Joker's "hits" are not mafia hits. If Vrael does not die, the hits are placed independently of whatever the mafia does.

2) I choose targets at random. This means I use the randomizer.. duh. The targets will not be Batman or the Joker himself. Thus the odds a hit lands on a mafia can be calculated.




None.

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