Staredit Network > Forums > Null > Topic: SEN Mafia XV: Gotham City
SEN Mafia XV: Gotham City
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Oct 3 2009, 8:43 pm
By: DT_Battlekruser
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Oct 12 2009, 2:32 am FatalException Post #261



Quote from Vrael
Changed my mind. I just looked at the player list and there are some competent, intelligent people who could theoretically be mafia.

Hold on, lets do some analysis here.

There are 35 players.
1 is the Joker, and 1 is Batman.
"Batman cannot be a random target, but can be the main target of the Joker's ability"
So I could or could not be Batman.
6 mafia, so there is a 6/34 (35-joker, I can't be the joker or I'd be targeting myself) chance that I'm Mafia.
17.6% chance of me being mafia.
If I am not lynched, or otherwise survive, 2 people are chose at random and given a hit.

Possibilities:

I survive:
Case1:
We lynch a mafia: 5/33 = 15.15% any particular person being mafia.
Case2:
We don't lynch a mafia: 6/33 = 18.18% chance of any particular person being mafia.

However, batman cannot be a random target, so if I survive:
5/(32) = 15.625%
6/(32) = 18.75%

So we will either have 2 15.6% chances of killing a mafia, or 2 18.75% chances of killing a mafia for free.
then we make a table for possibilities of those hits:

---------mafia--------townie
mafia----W--------------X
townie---Y--------------Z

(case 1 = we lynched a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 1 = (5/32)(4/31) = 2.016% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 1 = (5/32)(27/31) = 13.6% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 1 = (27/32)(5/31) = 13.6% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 1 = (27/32)(26/31) = 70.7% (Z)

(case 2 = we didn't lynch a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 2 = (6/32)(5/31) = 3.02% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 2 = (6/32)(26/31) = 15.7% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 2 = (26/32)(6/31) = 15.7% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 2 = (26/32)(25/31) = 65.5% (Z)

So in case 1, the probability that at least 1 mafia dies is 2.016+13.6+13.6 = 29.216%
Case 2, 34.42%

Since you only have a 17.6% chance of me being mafia, I say we don't lynch me and use the Joker to our advantage.
Doctor, please protect me tonight.

Shit I just realized that tomorrow there wont be a total of 35 people anymore. It will be a quick fix, just have to change the fractions above to reflect actual population.
Where's the option for you not surviving and us lynching a mafia? There may be only a 17.6% chance of you being mafia, but that's the same for everyone. Does that mean we shouldn't lynch anyone, because they too only have a 17.6% chance of being mafia? Your argument is invalid.

Also, I wouldn't discount you from being the Joker; no where does it say that the Joker can't target himself.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:38 am darksnow Post #262



but the joker cant be lynched...
oooh i get it.
joker targets himself, joker cannot be lynched=he creates chaos



None.

Oct 12 2009, 2:42 am Corbo Post #263

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

Wouldn't it reveal his identity, though? like
*OMG LYNCHS SELF*
*lynch failed*
Townies: WTF NO LYNCH ITS THEJOKER!!!



fuck you all

Oct 12 2009, 2:44 am Vrael Post #264



Fine I'll redo the analysis with the possibility that I am the joker included, but not until tomorrow since I don't have the results of the night hits yet anyway. Mafia could off me anyway so it might not apply.

"Your argument is invalid"
Wtf.
You're being retarded by forcing me to say this Fatal:
The percent chance that I am mafia is 17.6 percent right now. So if you lynch me tomorrow, you will have a 17.6% chance of killing a mafia. HOWEVER, if I SURVIVE, there is a 29-34% chance that at least 1 mafia will die due to the joker.

Of course, after the night hits are all in the numbers will change. If only townies die during the night, the 29-34% chance will increase. We'll have to wait and see tomorrow.


So thanks-a-fuckin-lot for making me have to spell it out for all the mafia to see. Now they'll definitely hit me and the chances that you'll get a free mafia kill are less.

The option where I don't survive and you lynching a different mafia is simply (# of mafia alive)/(total populace) Say 6 townies die tonight, then the chance of lynching a mafia tomorrow is 6/29 = 20.68%

Quote from name:MAFIA JOKER ROLE
The Joker cannot die at night until revealed by Batman, but he can be lynched.




None.

Oct 12 2009, 3:16 am Greo Post #265



Wonder if the Joker can be hit by his own ability.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 9:04 am InsolubleFluff Post #266



This town is asking way too many stupid questions.

The joker would never target himself, and if Vrael is doing that now, he's helping us. Let Vrael live, there is a chance up to 2 mafia are hit.

Also, Echo, I think you know what I have to say about you.

Darksnow. Go and READ the first post in this topic. It will answer a LOT of your questions. Stupid ones like 'DTBK won't pick mafia so it's not random' you probably won't find an answer to, because it's a stupid question. It'd say '2 of my choice.'



None.

Oct 12 2009, 12:56 pm Chubacca Post #267



Darksnow, go read the entire first post. Even memorize the names lol. :unsure:

It is funny that these roles are causing so much confusion when they are not that complicated. :lol:

lol Greo, are you being sarcastic?
Quote from DTBK
2) I choose targets at random. This means I use the randomizer.. duh. The targets will not be Batman or the Joker himself. Thus the odds a hit lands on a mafia can be calculated.




None.

Oct 12 2009, 3:22 pm Echo Post #268



Quote from name:Shocko
Also, Echo, I think you know what I have to say about you.
Actually, I don't because I am not you.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 5:27 pm Generalpie Post #269

Staredit Puckwork

can we get a count towards the end of night time?



None.

Oct 12 2009, 5:55 pm Greo Post #270



Quote from Generalpie
can we get a count towards the end of night time?
Most likely it'll be ending in 6 hours or 18 hours. One of those two.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 6:33 pm darksnow Post #271



how'd you come up with that?



None.

Oct 12 2009, 7:11 pm Generalpie Post #272

Staredit Puckwork

whoever is batman should target vrael to make sure the risk is worth it.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 7:41 pm Greo Post #273



Quote from darksnow
how'd you come up with that?
He posted Night 1 two days ago, and at 6PM my time. I'm assuming that he'll post in 4.25 hours from now :P



None.

Oct 12 2009, 7:42 pm Vrael Post #274



Quote from Generalpie
whoever is batman should target vrael to make sure the risk is worth it.
NO!

Look, wait for the statistical analysis. Either way, the chances of mafia dying if I survive will be greater than if I die. Therefore, this risk is ALREADY worth it, and we shouldn't have Batman waste his power.

Also, it's likely that I will die, so don't have Batman waste his power that way either.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 7:44 pm Greo Post #275



Quote from Vrael
Quote from Generalpie
whoever is batman should target vrael to make sure the risk is worth it.
NO!

Look, wait for the statistical analysis. Either way, the chances of mafia dying if I survive will be greater than if I die. Therefore, this risk is ALREADY worth it, and we shouldn't have Batman waste his power.

Also, it's likely that I will die, so don't have Batman waste his power that way either.

Damn Joker.

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Oct 12 2009, 7:54 pm by Greo.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 7:45 pm Generalpie Post #276

Staredit Puckwork

Quote from Vrael
Quote from Generalpie
whoever is batman should target vrael to make sure the risk is worth it.
NO!

Look, wait for the statistical analysis. Either way, the chances of mafia dying if I survive will be greater than if I die. Therefore, this risk is ALREADY worth it, and we shouldn't have Batman waste his power.

Also, it's likely that I will die, so don't have Batman waste his power that way either.
same here. infact that means some people will go down with me because of suspicion.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 7:51 pm darksnow Post #277



oh, can someone reveal raccoon's role?
if the BDS hasn't already killed him =O

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Oct 12 2009, 7:59 pm by darksnow.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 8:08 pm Vrael Post #278



Hrm. Does anyone know whether DTBK picks the two targets simultaneously, or picks 1 randomly, places the hit, then excludes that person from the second random hit? I assumed the latter. Since our population is only 35 people it will affect the probabilities I think.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 8:17 pm Corbo Post #279

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

Actually... I am strongly thinking against Vrael.

He said that a mafia wouldn't bother making the analysis, wrong. A mafia would. Trying to defend himself from getting lynched.
And I also find suspicious that in his super deep analysis he doesn't mention the fact that by ignoring the joker the 2 hits can also be on a townie role like a patrolman or BDS for that matter and seeing how many roles there are there's a 42% chance of hitting a special role (36% including mafia). That's actually a bit higher than hitting a mafia.

Either way I want this night to end before making premature accusations.



fuck you all

Oct 12 2009, 8:21 pm darksnow Post #280



well to me, raccoon is more suspicious than vrael.
the detective should investigate vrael, and batman should investigate raccoon



None.

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