Quote from
Vrael
VraelChanged my mind. I just looked at the player list and there are some competent, intelligent people who could theoretically be mafia.
Hold on, lets do some analysis here.
There are 35 players.
1 is the Joker, and 1 is Batman.
"Batman cannot be a random target, but can be the main target of the Joker's ability"
So I could or could not be Batman.
6 mafia, so there is a 6/34 (35-joker, I can't be the joker or I'd be targeting myself) chance that I'm Mafia.
17.6% chance of me being mafia.
If I am not lynched, or otherwise survive, 2 people are chose at random and given a hit.
Possibilities:
I survive:
Case1:
We lynch a mafia: 5/33 = 15.15% any particular person being mafia.
Case2:
We don't lynch a mafia: 6/33 = 18.18% chance of any particular person being mafia.
However, batman cannot be a random target, so if I survive:
5/(32) = 15.625%
6/(32) = 18.75%
So we will either have 2 15.6% chances of killing a mafia, or 2 18.75% chances of killing a mafia for free.
then we make a table for possibilities of those hits:
---------mafia--------townie
mafia----W--------------X
townie---Y--------------Z
(case 1 = we lynched a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 1 = (5/32)(4/31) = 2.016% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 1 = (5/32)(27/31) = 13.6% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 1 = (27/32)(5/31) = 13.6% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 1 = (27/32)(26/31) = 70.7% (Z)
(case 2 = we didn't lynch a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 2 = (6/32)(5/31) = 3.02% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 2 = (6/32)(26/31) = 15.7% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 2 = (26/32)(6/31) = 15.7% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 2 = (26/32)(25/31) = 65.5% (Z)
So in case 1, the probability that at least 1 mafia dies is 2.016+13.6+13.6 = 29.216%
Case 2, 34.42%
Since you only have a 17.6% chance of me being mafia, I say we don't lynch me and use the Joker to our advantage.
Doctor, please protect me tonight.
Shit I just realized that tomorrow there wont be a total of 35 people anymore. It will be a quick fix, just have to change the fractions above to reflect actual population.
Hold on, lets do some analysis here.
There are 35 players.
1 is the Joker, and 1 is Batman.
"Batman cannot be a random target, but can be the main target of the Joker's ability"
So I could or could not be Batman.
6 mafia, so there is a 6/34 (35-joker, I can't be the joker or I'd be targeting myself) chance that I'm Mafia.
17.6% chance of me being mafia.
If I am not lynched, or otherwise survive, 2 people are chose at random and given a hit.
Possibilities:
I survive:
Case1:
We lynch a mafia: 5/33 = 15.15% any particular person being mafia.
Case2:
We don't lynch a mafia: 6/33 = 18.18% chance of any particular person being mafia.
However, batman cannot be a random target, so if I survive:
5/(32) = 15.625%
6/(32) = 18.75%
So we will either have 2 15.6% chances of killing a mafia, or 2 18.75% chances of killing a mafia for free.
then we make a table for possibilities of those hits:
---------mafia--------townie
mafia----W--------------X
townie---Y--------------Z
(case 1 = we lynched a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 1 = (5/32)(4/31) = 2.016% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 1 = (5/32)(27/31) = 13.6% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 1 = (27/32)(5/31) = 13.6% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 1 = (27/32)(26/31) = 70.7% (Z)
(case 2 = we didn't lynch a mafia)
Mafia/Mafia kill case 2 = (6/32)(5/31) = 3.02% (W)
Mafia/Townie kill case 2 = (6/32)(26/31) = 15.7% (X)
Townie/Mafia kill case 2 = (26/32)(6/31) = 15.7% (Y)
Townie/Townie kill case 2 = (26/32)(25/31) = 65.5% (Z)
So in case 1, the probability that at least 1 mafia dies is 2.016+13.6+13.6 = 29.216%
Case 2, 34.42%
Since you only have a 17.6% chance of me being mafia, I say we don't lynch me and use the Joker to our advantage.
Doctor, please protect me tonight.
Shit I just realized that tomorrow there wont be a total of 35 people anymore. It will be a quick fix, just have to change the fractions above to reflect actual population.
Also, I wouldn't discount you from being the Joker; no where does it say that the Joker can't target himself.
None.







