Quote from Aristocrat

Someone is getting lynched anyways; abstaining does nothing to prevent the lynch. The expected returns from random lynching is sufficiently high that I am willing to risk it.

Let's see... currently 20% chance of lynching a mafia (4 mafia/20 total) SOMEONE didn't update the OP. Sorry, it's 21.05% chance of lynching a mafia. Abstaining forces a no lynch, which means that tomorrow it becomes at best 26.67%, as opposed to a mislynch, which is far more likely. I don't see why a townie would want to take such a big risk, as opposed to waiting for greater odds, but whatever.

Also, if you push for a lynch this early, it seems both stupid and suspicious to me, and since I know Aristo isn't that stupid, and neither is Devlin (although he doesn't always do what seems logical), it smells a little fishy. This round, I'm voting if and only if there would otherwise be a tie, because then both are lynched, IIRC.

No lynch always benefits mafia. I don't see why it's difficult to understand that.

Uhmm:

I'm just going to follow DevliN and vote Tempz.

What? No

The chances of hitting a mafia suck right now.

The reason why I randomly chose someone is because this game wont be based on clues, and instead behavioral analysis. The problem with that so far is that half the people playing aren't even posting in the thread so there's nothing really to analyze, other than suspicions that they are mafia since they are being so quiet.

On top of that, since we don't have a vigilante, we can only kill Mafia by lynching. No matter what, with 5 Mafia alive, 5 of us will be hit at most and 3 will die at least. If they get lucky and kill 5 of us at Night, then we're down to 9 Townies against 5 Mafia (or 11 Townies against 5 Mafia if they kill 3). I figured it would be better to lynch someone and hope we get Mafia, rather than wait until we have much fewer numbers. Theoretically by day 3 (or 4, if you count the starting day), we'll be down to 8 Townies against 5 Mafia (if we don't lynch anyone) and it becomes a repeat of last game.

That is also assuming all 5 Mafia are are active.

Everyone has two lives, so the mafia at 5 would only kill 2.5 people per night, alternating between 2 and 3 (unless the nurse saves someone).

Norm is the one going "DON'T LYNCH ME" before anyone even voted for him and flipping out for no reason. Random.org actually gave me Cecil, but I decided to change it to Norm after I saw his post.

Yeah, but Norm isn't stupid. If he was Mafia I don't think he would flip out over the no clues thing, he would have reacted differently. I think he was just vastly annoyed that you wanted to lynch him with him as a townie.

If you guys want a no lynch you gotta tie the vote, not abstain

Haven't any of you played Epic Mafia? When we can random lynch w/o losing, then we RANDOM LYNCH WITHOUT LOSING. Would you rather let the MAFIA chose someone to die, or would you rather let the TOWN chose someone to die? Waiting until the last possible moment that we can lynch is UBER UBER UBER noob. If we wait till there are 7 mafias and 8 townies, that means we have to lynch the correct person 8 times in a row (with a 50-50 chance (or less) of miss lynching each time) The chances of us winning are about 0% if we do that.

So... RANDOM RANDOM RANDOM LYNCH

I vote Tempz

I change my vote to Norm.

I am not mafia because 5 people who are not me - including yourself - are mafia.
Therefore, I change my vote from Abstain -----> Aristocrat

I change my vote to ARISTOCRAT from ABSTAIN.

Fuck abstaining.

I vote for Wing Zero.

He was killed by Mafia.

And one more thing - there are only 4 Mafia, as the OP states.

I didn't realize we had 2 night lives, so forget what I said earlier.

I change my vote to Norm.

That's the shittiest rebuttal I've seen all year

My current mafia suspicion list: Norm, Cecil, Raccoon.

EDIT> Detective(s), please send me your investigation results. Send them to me and only me to prevent information leak, and I will use them to pass judgment.

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Oct 21 2010, 9:11 pm by Aristocrat.

Changing vote to NO LYNCH.