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[2023-8-08. : 4:28 pm]  Vrael -- in reality the gambler has gotten lucky already in essence, and ended up in a situation where he does have a better chance of getting his desired outcome, but the chance of rolling a 1 on the 3rd die was always 1/6[2023-8-08. : 4:25 pm] Vrael -- Oh_ManOh_Man shouted: Gamblers fallacy tells us that the outcome of a previous roll does not affect the outcome of the next roll. Yet cumulative probability tells us rolling 1 three times in a row has a 1/216 chance or 0.463%. What gives?? if you need to roll a 1,1,1 and you have rolled two 1's already, the probability of the next 1 is still 1/6, but its a heck of a lot better than 1/216, so a gambler might say "Oooh I'm hot" and think his two previous 1's make another 1 more likely[2023-8-08. : 4:15 pm] Vrael -- in many games where 112 and 121 and 211 are equivalent (yahtzee comes to mind, or anything where you sum the dice) then some outcomes have greater likihood than others[2023-8-08. : 4:14 pm] Vrael -- Oh_ManOh_Man shouted: My understanding is any possible roll combination has the same likelihood as any other combination (assuming same number of rolls). this is only true if you consider the order of the dice independently, that is, 112 is different from 121 or 211[2023-8-08. : 11:49 am] Voyager7456 -- IggyhopperIggyhopper shouted: Is Doom Dragoon compatible with 1.16.1? It should be[2023-8-07. : 12:37 pm]  Oh_Man -- My understanding is any possible roll combination has the same likelihood as any other combination (assuming same number of rolls).[2023-8-07. : 1:54 am] NudeRaider -- So I guess what might confuse people is that rolling 11 is already fairly unlikely, but since it already happened they treat it as 100% likely and figure it must be the last roll that contains all the "unlikelyness", which is obviously not true.[2023-8-07. : 1:43 am] NudeRaider -- Oh_ManOh_Man shouted: 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116 all have a 1/216* chance not 8000 i mean*. So the fallacy is thinking changing your roll even matters *every* roll with n dice has a 1/6^n chance of appearing. For n = 3 that's 1/216. So 111, 112, ... but also 666, 123 etc. If you *already* rolled 11 that had a chance of 1/6^2 = 1/36 of happening. Getting *another* 1 is just another single dice roll, so the chance is 1/6^1 = 1/6. If you multiply the chances of your first 2 rolls and the last roll together you get the total chance: 1/36 * 1/6 = 1/216[2023-8-06. : 12:55 pm] Oh_Man -- 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116 all have a 1/216* chance not 8000 i mean*. So the fallacy is thinking changing your roll even matters[2023-8-06. : 12:54 pm] Oh_Man -- but the actual truth is any role is actually a one in 8000 thousand chance[2023-8-06. : 12:53 pm] Oh_Man -- So the fallacy is like, hmm 1 1 1 has a one in 8000 thousand chance I would be crazy to beat on a 1 appearing on this third dice role[2023-8-06. : 10:30 am]  Moose -- The cumulative probability of rolling 1 1 1 is different from the conditional probability of rolling 1 given previous rolls of 1 1.[2023-8-06. : 8:38 am] NudeRaider -- But I'd really like to hear from Oh_Man where his confusion lies, so we can specifically address it.[2023-8-06. : 8:34 am] NudeRaider -- sraw531sraw531 shouted: I believe gamblers fallacy, being a fallacy, is saying the opposite - that the odds of future rolls are based on rolls in the present/past. The explanation for how it *actually* works is that its not based on present/past rolls. At the point you determine the odds, it becomes fixed from that point, but the odds collapse as the cumulative results come in The beginning is a little confusing. The rest is correct. The fallacy is "I rolled 2 1's in a row, the odds of rolling *another* 1 is really low". But that's just not how it works, so it's a fallacy.[2023-8-06. : 1:01 am] sraw531 -- I believe gamblers fallacy, being a fallacy, is saying the opposite - that the odds of future rolls are based on rolls in the present/past. The explanation for how it *actually* works is that its not based on present/past rolls. At the point you determine the odds, it becomes fixed from that point, but the odds collapse as the cumulative results come in[2023-8-05. : 4:21 pm] Ultraviolet -- That concept fucked with me for a while, too, but it makes sense to me now. You always have the same 1/216 probability of rolling three 1's in a row regardless of previous outcomes. And after the first roll of 1, you have a 1/36 chance in doing it two more times to get three 1's in a row. But you also have a 1/36 chance of getting two 5's or any other number because the probabilities will always be the same regardless of previous outcomes.[2023-8-05. : 2:04 pm] NudeRaider -- Where do you see a contradiction? One statement is about individual rolls, the other statement says how likely it is to get a specific outcome in three rolls.[2023-8-05. : 11:26 am] Oh_Man -- Gamblers fallacy tells us that the outcome of a previous roll does not affect the outcome of the next roll. Yet cumulative probability tells us rolling 1 three times in a row has a 1/216 chance or 0.463%. What gives??[2023-8-04. : 4:42 pm] O)FaRTy1billion[MM] -- but gotta be careful because i'm pretty sure someone who wasn't a bot got banned for being a bot recently  [2023-8-04. : 4:41 pm] O)FaRTy1billion[MM] -- "Thanks a lot for useful info!" is such a vague and generic post that they're almost 100% certainly a bot[2023-8-04. : 2:31 pm] Ultraviolet -- RIVERIVE shouted: Maaaan, UV you gonna callout anyone who breaks your wob chain. A wob chain you probably reposted in 4 times. naw I wasn't too worried about that. I said sus because I was suspicious they were a bot, but their post and shout weren't obvious enough to tell for sure[2023-8-04. : 5:04 am] RIVE -- Maaaan, UV you gonna callout anyone who breaks your wob chain. A wob chain you probably reposted in 4 times.[2023-8-01. : 8:47 pm] Ultraviolet -- NudeRaiderNudeRaider shouted: Ultraviolet I wonder if rebooting the server would temporarily solve that problem. I mean it used to work at some point. Nothing major has changed since then. *shrugs* I remember you tried with my Impossible UV map a long time ago and it wouldn't work for you either. And I update it frequently enough (although admittedly less these days) that it's not really worth the hassle of working with a basically defunct system  [2023-8-01. : 7:54 pm] NudeRaider -- UltravioletUltraviolet shouted: TheHappy115 I'm probably the wrong person to ask unfortunately. SEN's DLDB hates me, my maps won't upload at all lol. I just use alternate hosting these days (Google Drive for me) I wonder if rebooting the server would temporarily solve that problem. I mean it used to work at some point. Nothing major has changed since then.[2023-8-01. : 5:18 pm] TheHappy115 -- ah okay, thanks. It seems the main one got deleted but now I can't upload the new one haha[2023-8-01. : 12:34 pm] Ultraviolet -- TheHappy115TheHappy115 shouted: @Ultraviolet is there a way to delete uploaded files? I can't seem to upgrade my file so I want to delete and old one and just upload a new version of it. I can't seem to find the delete button though (File in Questions is Touhou Shooting 12 UFO v1.00) I'm probably the wrong person to ask unfortunately. SEN's DLDB hates me, my maps won't upload at all lol. I just use alternate hosting these days (Google Drive for me)[2023-8-01. : 4:08 am] TheHappy115 -- @Ultraviolet is there a way to delete uploaded files? I can't seem to upgrade my file so I want to delete and old one and just upload a new version of it. I can't seem to find the delete button though (File in Questions is Touhou Shooting 12 UFO v1.00)[2023-8-01. : 3:30 am] jjf28 -- NudeRaiderNudeRaider shouted: jjf28 Should be in the Wiki tbh. thanks for volunteering, you have my blessing [2023-7-31. : 9:13 pm] sraw531 -- So, I found a rar with most of the ai scripts, but it seems to be lacking most of the area town scripts, is there a better place I could go to get these[2023-7-31. : 6:22 am] NudeRaider -- jjf28jjf28 shouted: sraw531 see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b9SbYY4lBPG52pj199eMyMqGZzPfsYqOEJkeOqKsebo/edit?usp=sharing Should be in the Wiki tbh.[2023-7-31. : 5:22 am] jjf28 -- sraw531sraw531 shouted: see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b9SbYY4lBPG52pj199eMyMqGZzPfsYqOEJkeOqKsebo/edit?usp=sharing So, I have been trying to figure out stuff involving frames, I swear there was some post that talked about how game seconds can never be equal to real time seconds for some reason involving frames. How many frames is a non-hyper trigger cycle? "Every 2 seconds" is the only metric I know, so is that every 32 frames?[2023-7-31. : 5:18 am] sraw531 -- So, I have been trying to figure out stuff involving frames, I swear there was some post that talked about how game seconds can never be equal to real time seconds for some reason involving frames. How many frames is a non-hyper trigger cycle? "Every 2 seconds" is the only metric I know, so is that every 32 frames?[2023-7-23. : 11:25 pm] TheHappy115 -- I can always just upload the newest file but I'd rather not do that if I can help it[2023-7-23. : 11:21 pm] TheHappy115 -- and this is a file on StarEdit that I'm trying to update as I previously released a demo version of the game and now want to release full version[2023-7-23. : 11:20 pm] TheHappy115 -- I'm trying to update a file. This new one uses EUD Editor 3 Modifications on it but it won't let me update, whenever I try to it gives me "error: Invalid Extension"[2023-7-23. : 10:19 pm] IlyaSnopchenko -- My Amazon was like: spam Freezing Arrow until they all die; if they're cold immune spam immolation arrow until they all die :-) Worked like a charm[2023-7-23. : 1:56 pm] Ultraviolet -- VraelVrael shouted: Ultraviolet ya I actually hate this, I love spamming like fireball or orb in D2 I miss that element of D2 too. Like in theory, spamming one spell seems dumbed down and too simple while comboing spells seems more involved, but in practice, it does feel like there's a limited number of combinations you can explore that feels a lot smaller in scope than what you could do with your character in D2[2023-7-21. : 1:24 pm] Vrael -- zeal is D2 being like "We know you're gonna spam the same whacky-whacky spell over and over, lets make that a little easier for you"[2023-7-21. : 1:22 pm] Vrael -- but at least that was discovery on part of the players and not the game force feeding you what you need to do[2023-7-21. : 1:21 pm] Vrael -- like sure maybe some diablo player figures out some whack ass rotation of spells to use to maximize DPS or total damage or abuse monster AI and shit in D2[2023-7-21. : 1:20 pm] Vrael -- thats another part of what I mean about being creating a system which can organically generate new possibilities, versus being limited to the game designer's options[2023-7-21. : 1:20 pm] Vrael -- UltravioletUltraviolet shouted: One thing about the skill system in D4 that I like in some ways, but as a whole I don't love is that it all seems to be combo focused. Like use your basic skill 3 times to maximize the power of your core skill and make sure you have your imbuement active so your core skill does maximum damage. It gives combat a fairly predictable rhythm, although I'd say that is true for all games in the Diablo series to some extent. I have mostly only played solo so far, so maybe there's more diversity potential in cooperative play *shrugs* ya I actually hate this, I love spamming like fireball or orb in D2[2023-7-21. : 11:03 am] Oh_Man -- VraelVrael shouted: D3 its like, you basically have to only use the specific combinations that the game designers created D4 doesnt ddo this anymore coz they ditched sets. it was usually set bonuses ultra buffing certain spells. itemisation too is pretty subdued for spell buffing. honesstly i prefer D3 XD[2023-7-20. : 5:22 pm] Ultraviolet -- One thing about the skill system in D4 that I like in some ways, but as a whole I don't love is that it all seems to be combo focused. Like use your basic skill 3 times to maximize the power of your core skill and make sure you have your imbuement active so your core skill does maximum damage. It gives combat a fairly predictable rhythm, although I'd say that is true for all games in the Diablo series to some extent. I have mostly only played solo so far, so maybe there's more diversity potential in cooperative play *shrugs* |
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