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[2014-10-17. : 4:40 pm]  Azrael -- Lots of people are dying of ebola, but considering the death toll was much higher for the bubonic plague, this is fine.[2014-10-17. : 4:39 pm] Azrael -- Yeah, you are insulting Jews (capitalized, wow Wing) by suggesting an atrocity is "okay" if something *more* unfair happened in the past.[2014-10-17. : 4:38 pm] Azrael -- "Assuming true randomness, and assuming the player cannot choose to not play if they see the odds are against them" would make your statement correct.[2014-10-17. : 4:38 pm] Roy -- It's notI thought we were assuming one player, one winning box. Your odds increase if other players have played and lost.[2014-10-17. : 4:37 pm] jjf28 -- AzraelAzrael shouted: "Hitler killed millions of Jews, so it's okay if we just kill a few hundred thousand." reductio ad hitlerum  [2014-10-17. : 4:36 pm] Azrael -- RoyRoy shouted: Actually, assuming true randomness, it doesn't matter which box you pick. It's always 1/49. A box doesn't become "more likely" if it hasn't been the winning box 10, 50, or 9001 times in a row. AzraelAzrael shouted: In reality, people who see that the jackpot was gotten already won't play, and thus their losses will be minimized, earning them profit. [2014-10-17. : 4:36 pm] Roy -- Actually, assuming true randomness, it doesn't matter which box you pick. It's always 1/49. A box doesn't become "more likely" if it hasn't been the winning box 10, 50, or 9001 times in a row.[2014-10-17. : 4:36 pm] Azrael -- "Hitler killed millions of Jews, so it's okay if we just kill a few hundred thousand."[2014-10-17. : 4:36 pm]  Wing Zero -- Also you underestimate the willingness of people wanting to play magic boxes[2014-10-17. : 4:36 pm] Azrael -- Wing, if you're going to enter a discussion uninvited, at least have the decency to bring some logic with you as a gift.[2014-10-17. : 4:35 pm] Azrael -- In reality, people who see that the jackpot was gotten already won't play, and thus their losses will be minimized, earning them profit.[2014-10-17. : 4:35 pm] Wing Zero -- AZ considering the Magic boxes were rigged against you before. This is perfectly fine[2014-10-17. : 4:34 pm] Azrael -- On a side note: While the "1/49 board would make you break even" idea is nice in theory, that's only true if you open the first box for all 49 games.[2014-10-17. : 4:32 pm] Azrael -- Having a rigged carnival game where they let every 5th person win, and thus people who play 5+ games aren't being ripped off, doesn't make it fair for the people who got screwed in the meantime.[2014-10-17. : 4:30 pm] Azrael -- It will have relatively zero impact on the "over time" balance to add 40 minerals to a single board.[2014-10-17. : 4:29 pm] Azrael -- The "OVER TIME" average will still be above 980, and only marginally affected.[2014-10-17. : 4:28 pm] Azrael -- So it's balanced OVER TIME. It's additionally possible to balance each board individually as well, which currently isn't the case.Additionally, if the worst board really does add up to 940 (I somehow doubt this has been verified for every/any board, considering the uncertain way in which it was stated), is it really[2014-10-17. : 4:27 pm] Roy -- The boards balance each other. Well, actually not, because there are more profitable boards than not, and to a higher margin.[2014-10-17. : 4:27 pm] Azrael -- It's lazy and dishonest to suggest one is okay even if the other isn't.[2014-10-17. : 4:26 pm] Azrael -- But really: The game should be balanced PER BOARD in addition to OVER TIME.[2014-10-17. : 4:26 pm] Azrael -- Right. That's not too much to expect. Someone who plays the "below 1 multiplier" boards is going to consistently lose money over time.[2014-10-17. : 4:25 pm] Roy -- You'd be expected to win 1 of every 49 games on average in your scenario, which would mean you'd break even with a 980 box jackpot.[2014-10-17. : 4:24 pm] Azrael -- You can consider the 990+ boards to have a "bonus multiplier". If you made this information visible, so it was clear whether the board was low-risk or high-reward, it would catch the interest of more people.[2014-10-17. : 4:23 pm] Azrael -- To average out 50/50, you'd combine high-risk boards with low-risk boards.[2014-10-17. : 4:23 pm] Azrael -- 1 box being 980, the rest are 0: This game is fair. The odds of winning, using the "50/50" descriptor, would be 1/49.P[2014-10-17. : 4:22 pm] Roy -- If you were to play every box round, you would come out ahead, statistically speaking.[2014-10-17. : 4:20 pm] Azrael -- "You played on Tuesday? Profit! Oh but this other guy played the same game on Friday... No profit for you!"[2014-10-17. : 4:20 pm] Azrael -- It doesn't make it okay to have boards that fuck you just because there are also boards that don't. It's like the below-one raffle multiplier: There shouldn't be a punishment for playing based on what day you log-in.[2014-10-17. : 4:18 pm] Roy -- AzraelAzrael shouted: Roy Why not just make it a fair game? It's easy to balance properly: Make the values of every board add up to 980. Most of the boards add up to or over 980.[2014-10-17. : 4:18 pm] Azrael -- If it says the highest box remaining is 600, people are going to talk about it in the shoutbox and start caring about it enough to participate more.[2014-10-17. : 4:17 pm] Azrael -- You could even introduce a "Risk Factor" value displayed for each board, which is based on how many 0's are available. It could also show the "highest box remaining" to push people into accepting the high-risk high-reward scenario.[2014-10-17. : 4:16 pm] Azrael -- Then you can have low-risk low-yield boards, and high-risk high-yield boards.[2014-10-17. : 4:15 pm] Azrael -- This can be done to every board as long as it doesn't have a box worth 1000+.[2014-10-17. : 4:14 pm] Azrael -- RoyRoy shouted: And Magic Boxes look terrible today. Maybe we should get rid of the high jackpot boards and go for a lower-risk/lower-yield model. Why not just make it a fair game? It's easy to balance properly: Make the values of every board add up to 980.[2014-10-17. : 4:14 pm] Roy -- jjf28jjf28 shouted: damn roy, how'd you convince microsoft to move to patch-friday so quickly I'm a trendsetter.[2014-10-17. : 4:12 pm] Azrael -- "Vrael -- Az maybe they just want more people to participate -per round- but less people to participate overall?"A[2014-10-17. : 4:09 pm] jjf28 -- damn roy, how'd you convince microsoft to move to patch-friday so quickly[2014-10-17. : 4:02 pm] Dem0n -- FlameViperFlameViper shouted: The backup database appears empty and there's no ''load/open'' option. I still have the files though. What do I do? if your map is ever corrupted, opening and saving it in staredit will fix the problem. granted, you'll lose any improperly placed units/doodads, but it's better than losing your entire map.[2014-10-17. : 2:02 pm] FlameViper -- Oh alright. I changed the filename from .tmp to .scx and now I can open it.[2014-10-17. : 1:57 pm] FlameViper -- The backup database appears empty and there's no ''load/open'' option. I still have the files though. What do I do? |
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